UNEMPLOYMENT
WHEN WILL TREASURE COAST ECONOMY,
EMPLOYMENT BE BACK TO NORMAL?
As he makes presentations from his office in Tallahassee to virtual
audiences asking about the coronavirus pandemic’s impact
on the Florida economy and unemployment rate, Jerry Parrish
always gets two questions: What signs do we look for to show life
is returning to normal, and, when will be normal?
The chief economist and director of
research at the Florida Chamber Foundation
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said his responses are also always
the same: When college football games
are played; and when an effective, widely
available treatment for COVID-19 is found.
Parrish, a bachelor’s and doctoral grad and
football fan of Auburn University, expects
a treatment this fall followed by a vaccine
sometime in 2021.
A virus treatment will allow people to
be more comfortable risking restaurants,
offices, schools and other indoor activities
and allow more of the nonworking to
find jobs. Once a modern-day Jonas Salk makes a viable vaccine,
normality will reign, Parrish said.
Until then, expect higher-than-normal unemployment rates
on the Treasure Coast and in Florida, which in June, along with
Arizona, were poster children of virus spikes.
The state Department of Economic Opportunity agrees, in so
many words.
“The direction of the unemployment rate, as well as many
other economic indicators, will depend largely on how the public
health situation develops over the upcoming months,” said Paige
Landrum, the agency’s press secretary.
VIRUS HIT AT HEIGHT OF SEASON
When the virus’ impact hit businesses on the Treasure Coast,
leading to the highest unemployment rates across Florida since
the Great Depression of the 1930s, it was the high season for visitors,
lifeblood for many businesses.
The May Treasure Coast 13.1% unemployment rate was lower
than Florida’s 14.5% and the nation’s 13.3%. April’s rates were
13.5% for Treasure Coast counties St. Lucie, Indian River and Martin,
13.8% for Florida and 14.7% for the U.S.
That compares to Treasure Coast unemployment rates of 3.5%
for February, the last full month without significant virus affect,
and 3.6% in May 2019.
May unemployment rates were 13.8% in St. Lucie, 13.5% in
Indian River, and 11.4% in Martin.
The hardest hit in Florida and the Treasure Coast were restaurants,
bars and hotels, mainly because of operational restrictions,
but also because snowbirds didn’t flock to Florida after
mid-March.
“Our restaurant got shut down for our two best months of the
year, March and April,” said Joe Zebrowski, general manager of the
Dockside Inn & Resort on the Fort Pierce Inlet on South Beach. Its
on-site restaurant is On the Edge Bar & Grill. The Dockside also has
about 40 hotel rooms and a marina with 65 boat slips.
PPP KEEPS WORKERS EMPLOYED
During the restaurant’s shutdown from late March to early May,
Zebrowski furloughed about 30% of Dockside’s 40 workers but
was able to rehire all of them thanks to a loan from the federal
>>
BY BERNIE WOODALL
Dr. Jerry Parrish is the
chief economist and
director of research
at the Florida Chamber
Foundation.
2020 Unemployed rate # Unemployed # Employed INDIAN RIVER
May 13.5% 8,307 54,429 April 14.0% 8,489 52,060 March 5.1% 3,407 62,962 Feb 3.6% 2,371 64,327 2019 May 3.7% 2,413 62,813 ST. LUCIE
May 13.8% 19,503 121,313 April 14.1% 19,281 117,247 March 5.4% 7,931 139,878 Feb 3.7% 5,505 142,099 2019 May 3.8% 5,571 139,904 MARTIN
May 11.4% 7,999 62,468 April 11.8% 8,111 60,432 March 4.2% 3,161 72,151 Feb 3.0% 2,257 73,258 2019 May 3.0% 2,233 72,052 BREVARD
May 12.6% 34,333 238,558 April 12.8% 34,262 232,927 March 4.4% 12,666 272,443 Feb 3.1% 8,885 277,830 2019 May 3.1% 8,751 273,791 OKEECHOBEE
May 8.3% 1,345 14,912 April 7.5% 1,191 14,616 March 4.2% 770 17,504 Feb 2.9% 535 17,691 2019 May 3.2% 578 17,370 FLORIDA (seasonally adjusted)
May 14.5% 1.4 million 8.3 million April 13.8% 1.3 million 8.2 million March 4.4% 457,000 9.9 million Feb 2.8% 291,000 10.2 million 2019 May 3.2% 331,000 10 million U.S. (seasonally adjusted)
May 13.3% 21 million 137.2 million April 14.7% 23.1 million 133.4 million March 4.4% 7.1 million 155.8 million Feb 3.5% 5.8 million 158.8 million 2019 May 3.6% 5.94 million 156.8 million 1
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Florida Dept of Economic Opportunity.
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